‘A man who is not a liberal at 16 has no heart; a man who is not a conservative at 60 has no head.’ It is a political aphorism credited to many, but was actually said by 19th-century Tory prime minister Benjamin Disraeli.
A hundred and forty years later it remains a useful guide, but the full reality is more complex.
US President Joe Biden is 78. Taoiseach Micheál Martin is 60. Mary Lou McDonald is 52. She’s 10 years older than Leo Varadkar, who was born in 1979, the year Charlie Haughey became Taoiseach.
Parties eternally seek the elusive perfect leader, and sometimes trends for young leaders emerge. Yet there is no correlation between the age of a leader and the level of attraction they hold for younger voters.
President Michael D Higgins — who could well end his term in 2025 as the most loved President we have had — is 80.
Nevertheless, younger voters do currently favour particular political parties, conspicuously.
The support of the under-35s is not vital for politicians seeking power in the short term.
The long term? Time waits for no man or party and attracting younger voters is vital for those parties that seek long-term relevance and survival.
If a political party can find the door to the youth vote, it will lead to other places too.
To attract the younger voter, a number of factors are key: they include policies, vogueishness and an inclination towards liberal views.
Take a look at Joe Biden. Often he’s a bit doddery and confused. Yet in the 2020 presidential election, in a Titanic defeat of Donald Trump, Democratic Party candidate Biden attracted an extraordinary 61% of the 18 to 29 demographic.
He was the anti-Trump, yes. But he also espoused left-wing and liberal policies, supported using traditional Democratic Party ‘big Government’ ideas to fight the pandemic and he harnessed the support of youth icons such as New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez.
AOC is a social media pioneer, and her online tactics have been studiously adopted by Biden. Trump, of course, was no slouch on social media. Biden won, just.
Here we have a proportional representation electoral system, so contrasts are never as stark. Yet in Ireland the 2020 election marked a new era in politics.
For the first time Sinn Féin won more votes than either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Sinn Féin took 24.5% of the first-preference vote; Fianna Fáil took 22.2% and Fine Gael 20.9%.
Yet this is where the closeness of the race ends.
Exit polls show that in the 18 to 25-year-old category, Fianna Fáil took 13.6% of the vote; Fine Gael 15.5% and Sinn Féin took an extraordinary 31.8%.
In the 25 to 34-year-old category the traditional parties fared little better: Fianna Fáil took 15.2%; Fine Gael 17.3% and Sinn Féin 31.7%.
In last week’s MRBI/Irish Times poll it got worse for Fianna Fáil and better for Sinn Féin. Among the 18 to 24 age group, Fianna Fáil is polling 11% support; Fine Gael 28% and Sinn Féin 35%.
In the 25 to 34 category Fianna Fáil is 15%; Fine Gael 20% and Sinn Féin is at an outstanding 40%.
Today we publish a poll with Ireland Thinks that shows an overwhelming 45% of 18-34-year-olds support Sinn Féin compared to 17% for Fine Gael and six per cent for Fianna Fáil.
Sinn Féin is exceedingly popular with young people, unencumbered by the grim prejudice of history. Many older voters can never allow Sinn Féin to emerge from the black clouds of the Troubles. For the young the sun shines on Mary Lou and her party.
They resonate with the young, they understand them and understand how to communicate with them.
They are hip. Sinn Féin capitalised and participated in the social media revolution with greater energy and skill. And crucially it adapted to it earlier.
A key to success is control — military discipline presides over the Sinn Féin message.
Hence, Sinn Féin has managed to present itself as more socially liberal than Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.
Leo Varadkar, a gay man, and Micheál Martin were, in fact, frontiersmen on social issues.
Both men were far ahead of their party membership on the marriage and abortion referendums, and played crucial roles in both victories.
Sinn Féin controlled its message and image. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil did not, permitting significant dissent in their parties.
Fianna Fáil in particular lost control. Five women Oireachtas members and 26 men were photographed holding signs that said ‘vote no’ and ‘Support women, protect women, save lives’. Three current Cabinet Ministers feature. It is a photograph that has permanently damaged its image with the young.
For Fianna Fáil, other policies are an issue as well. Housing is the most intractable, imminent yet attritional problem facing the political establishment. But for those either directly or indirectly connected to it, it is a crisis. It is a scandal. Those most directly affected by it, and who have not got adult memories of a different reality, are the 18-35-year-old section of our population.
And, crucially, Fianna Fáil is now in charge of the housing department. A crisis with no end in sight.
Fine Gael, for its part, can at least hope to gain from older voters who wish to prevent Sinn Féin from participating in government. Fianna Fáil, it would appear, will not be trusted to ensure this aim.
The soldiers of destiny know they are in trouble. Fianna Fáil, some of its most influential figures tell me, has a passé image. It appears out of touch. Young people tell me that they will not consider the party at the polls: recent elections and opinion polls show it.
Fianna Fáil holds the office of Taoiseach and some of the key ministries, yet this week it is happy to be back at its general election level.
To survive long term, Fianna Fáil must get drastic and radical on housing, communication and personnel.
In the old days its masses of supporters trusted their leader was working away quietly in an austere office, delivering.
Now the young want to see it happen, in real time. And preferably on TikTok.
The sample size for the Ireland Thinks poll was 1,274. Using innovative technology, the survey has the advantage of doing random sampling from a face-to-face poll, together with the benefits of speed and privacy of smartphone sms polling. It was conducted yesterday between 11am and 4pm.
The method is in line with Pew Research Center and the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s evaluations of the most accurate methodologies for conducting public opinion polling. The representative sample is collated using Random
Digit Dialling and propensity score matching. The figures are weighted to age, gender, region, education and vote at the 2020 general election.
The poll has a response rate of one in three and a completion rate of 98%. The methodology is led by Dr Kevin Cunningham. He holds degrees in statistics from Oxford and TCD and lectures in TUD.
He works as a consultant on statistical methodology for three UK polling firms. The methodology exceeds the standards set by AIMRO, ESOMAR and the British Polling Council.
