Serious question.

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Will Arkansas defy the federal government on this?

It has already enacted a statute that discriminates against transgender females at the grade school and college level.

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It provides no protection under civil rights law at the state level and prohibits local ordinances.

It provides a pretext to claim a religious defense for discrimination.

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The Times article notes the difficulty of enforcement:

But the Education Department’s announcement does not change the process of reporting or investigating individual cases of discrimination, Mr. Cardona said. And it is unclear how far the new interpretation of the ruling will go to address legislative efforts to restrict rights based on gender identity. That includes dozens of bills introduced by Republicans across the country to bar transgender girls from playing sports.

“The reality is each case has to be investigated individually,” Mr. Cardona said. Schools, he added, should “not wait for complaints to come to address these issues.”

He likened the announcement to setting down a marker for schools nationwide, alerting them that the Biden Education Department would not tolerate discrimination in schools receiving federal funds.

“This is really clarity around how we interpret it,” Mr. Cardona said. “We need to make sure we are supporting all students in our schools.”